CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-09-14T07:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26915/-1
CME Note: Bright CME NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 that may be associated with a faint partial to full halo. The source is a filament eruption seen between AR's 13425 & 13423 stretching from ~N22W40 to ~N26W55. Eruption begins ~2023-09-14T06:40Z in SDO/AIA 304 followed by brightening at the foot points of the source location. Associated dimming, minor EUV wave, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcade are visible in most SDO/AIA wavelengths including 193, 171, 211, and 131. The visible dimming is seen primarily north of the filament location with the minor EUV wave primarily seen along the W/NW limb in SDO/AIA 211. An M-class flare is associated with the post-eruptive arcade occurring between AR's 13425 & 13423. Arrival signature is characterized by a relatively modest jump in ion density and temperature, as well as in magnetic field, with B total reaching 8nT. Preceded by a relatively gradual increase in solar wind speed from 400 to 480 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-17T01:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-16T13:58Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 915.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 981.221 Acceleration: -2.27118 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 196477.70 Duration in days: 2.2740474 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -2.27 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 535.0 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/09/2023 Time: 13:58 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 59.27 hour(s)
Difference: 11.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-09-14T14:37Z
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